Closing-time chaos that went viral

What began as a markdown turned into mayhem. As IKEA China launched closing sales across seven stores on February 2, crowds flooded outlets from Shanghai to Harbin. Video highlighted by Channel NewsAsia showed shoppers sprinting through aisles, tug-of-wars over rolling shelves, and carts jammed shoulder-to-shoulder. In Harbin, queues reportedly began at 7 a.m.—three hours before opening—while staff warned some customers might wait up to four hours just to get in. “I’ve never seen IKEA this crowded in my life,” one social post read, as bargain hunters grabbed whatever was closest, often without checking what they had picked up.

Behind the bargains: a deepening housing downturn

Analysts say the frenzy masked a harsher reality: shuttered stores reflect a housing market that is undermining demand for big-ticket furniture. Bloomberg and others note that when fewer new homes are sold, fewer customers purchase beds, custom kitchens, and wardrobes—the backbone of large-format furniture retail. Official data point to an extended slump: China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that nationwide housing starts fell roughly 20% year-on-year in January–July 2025, while listings of vacant properties have swelled. Citing figures from Shanghai-based outlet Yicai, The New York Times reported that the number of empty homes stands at more than twice historic norms.

Human cost: from retirement savings to “negative equity”

Media across Asia and the West have chronicled the toll on households. One man, according to Vision Times, poured his entire retirement payout and additional borrowed funds into a flat for his son—only for the engagement to collapse and buyers to vanish. Another family sold a parent’s shop to fund a down payment; after a layoff, mortgage arrears mounted and the phone rang all day with collection calls, yet no buyers emerged even after cutting the price. A third case saw a couple’s home value halved as monthly mortgage costs exceeded local rents, forcing dual gig work and deferred family plans. These accounts illustrate a wider trend: “negative equity,” where a property’s market value sinks below the outstanding loan. The Economist cited UBS research indicating that such cases could reach 1.8 million homes this year, up from around 700,000 late last year—a sobering barometer of household balance sheets.

IKEA pivots in China—while taking the reverse tack in Japan

Even after the seven closures, IKEA still operates 34 stores in mainland China. But strategy is shifting: The Wall Street Journal reports the company plans to open more than 10 small-format outlets over the next two years in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen, using compact showrooms to drive e-commerce and last-mile fulfillment. In Japan, IKEA is moving the other way. The company closed its urban-format Shinjuku and Harajuku locations on February 8, reaffirming the classic suburban warehouse model that suits weekend family shopping, ample parking, and a “see it, test it, take it” experience. Two neighboring markets, two contrasting plays—each tailored to local realities.

Why Japan stands apart

Japan’s housing and retail dynamics differ meaningfully. While Japan endured decades of property stagnation, today’s picture is more stable and transparent, with steady demand in major metros such as Tokyo and Osaka and comparatively conservative mortgage underwriting. That prudence has helped avoid the rapid household leverage build-ups seen elsewhere. For retailers, predictable urban density, reliable logistics, and disciplined consumer demand favor large-format stores at city fringes, complemented by strong online-to-offline integration. Japanese brands from Nitori to MUJI continue to refine multi-channel strategies, while foreign entrants calibrate formats carefully to Japan’s compact homes, exacting quality standards, and service expectations.

What this means for foreign residents and investors in Japan

• Property purchase in Japan does not grant a visa; immigration status is separate. Always confirm requirements for work, study, or business-manager visas.
• Japan’s lending remains relatively cautious by global standards; fixed-rate options and stress-tested affordability are common.
• Metropolitan prices have trended up in recent years, but conditions vary by region and building type—due diligence is key.
• Retail format matters: big-box works where weekend car trips are common; compact urban showrooms suit dense, transit-first neighborhoods.

Regionally, IKEA’s China retrenchment underscores how a housing downturn can ripple through the real economy, from construction to consumer durables. Japan’s contrasting retail posture highlights the advantages of a steady, rules-based market where companies can plan formats with confidence. As China navigates its housing reset, global brands will continue to customize footprints city by city—while Japan’s measured approach offers a reassuring counterpoint for residents, investors, and everyday shoppers alike.