China is significantly strengthening its effective control over Scarborough Shoal (known as Huangyan Island in China), located within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea. This escalation is deepening the conflict with the Ferdinand Marcos administration, which prioritizes its alliance with the United States.
Strategic Importance and Increasing Aggression
Scarborough Shoal, situated approximately 230 kilometers west of Luzon Island in the northern Philippines and covering about 150 square kilometers, has been under de facto Chinese control since 2012. It is a strategically vital point, overlooking the Bashi Channel, a key waterway for Chinese naval vessels accessing the Pacific Ocean.
On September 16, a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources vessel was attacked by a Chinese Coast Guard water cannon near Scarborough Shoal, injuring one crew member from flying glass. The assault lasted for about 30 minutes. China claimed that over ten Philippine vessels had illegally intruded into Chinese territorial waters with a Chinese Coast Guard spokesperson asserting that the Philippine side's deliberate infringement of sovereignty and provocative actions are malicious. Philippine authorities in turn accused China of issuing serious threats by warning of live-fire drills in the area.
Natural Protected Area Designation: A New Pretext for Control
Further escalating its control Chinese President Xi Jinping's administration announced on September 10 the designation of a portion of Scarborough Shoal as a national natural protected area. The Hong Kong newspaper *Ming Pao* reported on September 13 the views of a researcher from the Chinese South China Sea Institute stating that Philippine fishing boats are overfishing affecting fisheries resources and coral ecosystems. China appears to be leveraging the seemingly benign pretext of ecosystem protection to reinforce its administrative control a move that is difficult for other nations to openly dispute.
International Condemnation and Philippine Resolve
The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs has protested China's actions calling Scarborough Shoal an inseparable area over which it has sovereignty and jurisdiction and demanded the withdrawal of the natural protected area designation. The United States has also issued a statement rejecting plans that destabilize the [surrounding] area reaffirming its support for the Philippines.
In November 2024, China unilaterally established its territorial sea baselines which define the extent of territorial seas and EEZs under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and submitted related documents to the UN in December. This is seen as part of a broader effort to forcefully alter the status quo and assert its sovereignty over the shoal to the international community.
US-Philippines Alliance as a Catalyst for Chinese Actions
These actions by China are taking place against the backdrop of the Marcos administration's deepening security ties with the United States, which began in 2022. The Philippines has increased the number of bases accessible to US forces and announced plans to procure mid-range missile systems from the US. China views these developments, along with supportive moves from Japan and Australia, as an anti-China encirclement and has reacted strongly.
Despite ongoing diplomatic and defense talks between Chinese and Philippine officials no progress has been made. President Marcos has reiterated his government's firm stance stating We will continue to protect and defend our territory and our people signaling that the Philippines will not back down from its claims.
