U.S. sources see reduced likelihood of an invasion before 2028
China’s military preparations for a possible invasion of Taiwan may be running behind schedule, reducing the likelihood of a major attack before 2028, according to U.S. officials and people familiar with the assessment cited by Reuters. Although Chinese President Xi Jinping is believed to have instructed the People’s Liberation Army to be ready for a potential Taiwan operation by 2027, U.S. officials say that target should not automatically be interpreted as a fixed invasion date.
The assessment reflects several factors, including delays linked to China’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign within the military and Beijing’s interest in observing the outcome of Taiwan’s next presidential election. Some Chinese officials are reportedly hoping that a future Taiwanese government could be more open to accommodation with Beijing, potentially reducing the need for military action.
Taiwan’s political direction could shape Beijing’s calculations
According to two current U.S. officials, a former U.S. official and another person familiar with the matter, the risk of force could rise after 2028 if Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive presidential term. The possibility could become especially significant if President Lai Ching-te, who took office in 2024, wins re-election.
Lai and the Democratic Progressive Party support a distinct Taiwanese identity and reject Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is part of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing has not renounced the use of force to achieve unification, although it has never officially confirmed that Xi ordered the military to be ready for an invasion by 2027.
One U.S. official described 2028 as a potentially “very perilous year” if the political situation develops in that direction. The sources stressed, however, that the timing of any possible military action remains uncertain and depends on political, military and international factors.
Military readiness remains a major challenge
The year 2027 marks the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army, and U.S. officials have long believed that Xi wants the force to have the capabilities required for a Taiwan operation by then. That goal has not been withdrawn, the officials said. However, China’s military is believed to have experienced setbacks during the past year as anti-corruption investigations disrupted senior ranks and affected operational preparations.
U.S. officials said Chinese military exercises last year were smaller and appeared less threatening than those conducted in previous years. Activity has increased somewhat this year, but the assessments suggest that Chinese military leaders remain dissatisfied with the force’s level of readiness.
A large-scale assault on Taiwan would be among the most complex military operations in modern history. China would need to coordinate air, naval, missile and cyber forces while transporting troops across the Taiwan Strait and sustaining them under fire. The operation would also face Taiwan’s defenses and could trigger intervention by the United States and other regional partners.
Lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East
U.S. officials believe China may be studying the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East for lessons about the importance of moving quickly after an operation begins and avoiding a prolonged conflict. At the same time, the challenges facing the PLA remain substantial. One official compared the difficulty to an operation unlike anything attempted by most militaries since the Allied landings in Normandy during World War II.
Why the issue matters to Japan
Any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would have serious consequences for Japan. Taiwan lies close to Japan’s southwestern islands, including Yonaguni, and the surrounding waters are vital to regional trade, energy shipments and supply chains. Japan also has a security alliance with the United States and hosts major U.S. military facilities, meaning Tokyo would face intense diplomatic and security pressure during any crisis.
The Japanese government has repeatedly emphasized the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait while strengthening its own defense capabilities and cooperation with democratic partners. A conflict could disrupt shipping, affect markets and create risks for Japanese citizens and businesses throughout the region.
Taiwan’s presidential office said it would continue strengthening self-defense capabilities and working closely with the United States and other democratic allies to preserve the status quo, deter coercion and safeguard peace.
U.S. intelligence points to caution in Beijing
Recent U.S. intelligence assessments have also suggested that China is not currently planning an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and may prefer to pursue control without using force if possible. The sources further said Beijing could be watching the outcome of U.S. elections, particularly as American voters show growing opposition to overseas military involvement. While China may view Democratic and Republican Taiwan policies as broadly similar, the result of any U.S. election could still influence its risk calculations.
The latest assessment does not eliminate the threat of conflict. Instead, it highlights the uncertainty surrounding Beijing’s timetable and the importance of military readiness, elections and deterrence. For Taiwan, Japan and countries across the Indo-Pacific, continued preparation and communication remain central to preventing miscalculation and preserving regional peace.
